Probabilistic Demographic Forecasts for Metropolises of Ukraine
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probabilistic Forecasts of Solar Insolation
Meteorological forecasts of incident solar radiation are valuable for solar resource owners and others. Most previously described forecast methods provide a single predicted value. However, a well-calibrated forecast probability distribution is more useful in that it could be used to make optimum decisions under any decision rule. We demonstrate methods of constructing and evaluating probabilis...
متن کاملProbabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Type
Precipitation-type forecasting is the determination of when and where particular types of precipitation (e.g., snow, rain, ice pellets, freezing rain) will occur during a forecast period. Although much is already known about the physical processes that determine the type of precipitation that reaches the ground, these forecasts are very challenging for most forecasters because of inadequate atm...
متن کاملReliability Diagrams for Multicategory Probabilistic Forecasts
The most common method of verifying multicategory probabilistic forecasts such as are used in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting is through the use of the ranked probability score. This single number description of forecast accuracy can never capture the multidimensional nature of forecast quality and does not inform the forecaster about the sources of forecast deficiencies. A...
متن کاملCoherent Probabilistic Forecasts for Hierarchical Time Series
Many applications require forecasts for a hierarchy comprising a set of time series along with aggregates of subsets of these series. Hierarchical forecasting require not only good prediction accuracy at each level of the hierarchy, but also the coherency between different levels — the property that forecasts add up appropriately across the hierarchy. A fundamental limitation of prior research ...
متن کاملProbabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
Probabilistic forecasts of a continuous variable take the form of predictive densities or predictive cumulative distribution functions. We propose a diagnostic approach to the evaluation of predictive performance that is based on the paradigm of maximizing the sharpness of the predictive distributions subject to calibration. Calibration refers to the statistical consistency between the distribu...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Demography and social economy
سال: 2020
ISSN: 2072-9480
DOI: 10.15407/dse2020.03.076